Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Seth Klarman's Inflation hedge

People far and near have wondered what Seth Klarman's inflation hedge is! In a Columbia Business School conference he said (along with other nibbles n bits), "We do not use macro views, yet when we hedge, we will use a macro view. We think inflation could become out of control in 3 to 5 years. Yet, we might not wait for that position. Hence, perhaps early, we have a large inflation hedge. We don't own gold as a commodity. We won't disclose our inflation hedge, yet with enough work, you can find true inflation hedges."

Only a part of his portfolio is disclosed publicly, a lot of his portfolio consists of distressed debt and derivatives which do not have to be disclosed. But from what he has disclosed I think I might have an answer! The popular view is that there will be some deflation, followed by massive inflation (the printing press is in overdrive). Now to be clear, I have no idea what the macro situation would be tomorrow or in 3-5 years (too many variables!), I am just making a humble attempt - trying to analyze his comment.

Energy MLP's, I think is the answer. He owns Linn Energy (LINE), Breitburn Energy (BBEP) and Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL). Why? I will explain the picks later, but the short answer is this: These MLP's have yields of around 20-50% right now and their oil production is hedged 5 years forward at oil prices of around $80/bbl and gas prices of around $8.50/mcf. This means the yield is 'safe' (if its really safe can only be determined by extensive DD) and that if we have any amount of deflation, the yield will more than make up for it. Now in 3-5 years if we have inflation the USD will probably depreciate and oil - priced in USD (and perhaps gold and other commodities) will appreciate as we saw in the last few years. The MLP's will again be able to lock in high oil prices and might increase in value. Again, this is a cheap inflation hedge, not a core strategy! There is a difference. Cheap inflation hedge means that if things don't work out as you expected you will loose, albeit less - the MLP's have a payback period of around 3-5 years because of the yield.

There is a lot of information on MLP's out there, not a lot with investors thou (they've been busy with the crisis). The MLP structure requires a steady and dependable revenue stream. For this reason, MLPs have traditionally been oil and gas pipeline companies. However, in recent years, a number of upstream oil and gas producing MLPs have come to market. These companies use extensive hedging to assure a steady revenue stream from an otherwise unpredictable commodity market. They are income vehicles which avoid both federal and state corporate income taxes by passing through expenses and income to the investor (Canadian energy trusts anyone?). To be sure, these are business and should be analyzed as such, the management, capital structure, finding costs, risks etc. should be thoroughly analyzed. I looked at LINE and BBEP and they looked decent (I have not done extensive DD), Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors has been pumping the Atlas series of MLPs for a while. During 'normal' times they have yields of around 8-15%.

An interesting factor here (an one that value investors love) is that Lehman Brothers was big in MLPs (As of June, Lehman Brothers Asset Management owned $1.1 billion of MLP equities). So when it went under there was massive selling pressure on these vehicles! To be sure, many small oil and gas MLPs also used Lehman as the counterparty to their oil and natural gas hedges. In addition, Lehman provided lines of credit to some of these companies. But net-net this was a case of broken stocks and not broken companies (LINE terminated the contracts before Lehman bankruptcy) and therefore these MLPs are priced at a discount of around 30% to where Seth Klarman bought. Again, there is a lot of information on MLPs on the internet and if someone thinks they fit their portfolio, please do your due diligence before buying.

9 comments:

Colfax-Greeley said...

You are quite erudite in your analysis. This has to be a key component to his inflation hedge. When I read the 13F that he was into the MLP space, my ears perked up. I've spent the past 6 months drilling down deep into the sector. I think two of his selections are dicey (BBEP and APL) at his original cost basis for different reasons (one legal, the other being that I do not share the Omega and Klarman opinion on the genius of Atlas management), but at current price are favorable. I am more of a fan of the mid-stream players like PAA, CPNO and EPD (still offer double digit yields and are not as Oil/NG price sensitive). Pipelines are a very attractive asset, as are the upstream drop-down models.

I am of the belief that Klarman does not utilize a singular "inflation hedge," as it were. I think it is more thematic. Insofar as you summed up the reason for MLPs being his inflation hedge, I believe this to be one aspect: the relative agnosticism of said MLPs to oil prices over the next few years and then potentially soaring operational leverage exploitation once hedges expire. Another theme would be those companies with either the pricing power to pass on price increases to end consumers (his large position in Domtar, largest purveyor of uncoated free-sheet paper in an oligopoly or those that act as a conduit (example would be his big position in Horizon Lines – relatively safe Jones Act shipping company that focuses on shipping consumer staples to Hawaii, Alaska, Guam and Puerto Rico that has a relatively levered balance sheet) of producer to consumer.

Just one Klarman admirer’s take…

Nick said...

This is my first visit to your blog and I've added you to my reader. Thank you for the excellent content.

I particularly enjoyed this post on Klarman's inflation hedge as well as your risk arbitrage and Taleb posts.

Keep it up!

bsivia said...

@ Colfax-Greeley: I agree. There is more to the man (and his strategies) than we can ever decipher. I am a huge fan and am analyzing Domtar as we speak. Hope to hear from you when I post something on Domtar. Thank you for the comment.

@ Nick: Thanks Nick, appreciate it.

Z said...

Great job with the blog so far.

Is there any way to contact you via email?

bsivia said...

Thanks Logan. As far as any topic related comments are concerned please use the comment section of the blog so we all benefit; for everything else there's bsivia@gmail.com :)

Huntington Hartford said...

I disagree with your thinking that his mlp investments are his inflation hedge. At best, they might be a part of an inflation hedge.

Here's why I think you're wrong

(1) The wording he used to describe this inflation hedge reminded me of the wording he used to describe his shorting mortgage securities. He said he would make a lot if they fell and it wouldn't cost him much if they didn't. The actual investment was some sort of derivative product. Thus, I think his inflation hedge is a derivative product, too. For instance, not too long ago there was a 10 year tip bond trading below par. That means if there is massive deflation, you still get par. The YTM of the tip if it only got par was 1.5%. He could probably pair that trade with a short of the 10 year bond and get nearly FREE inflation protection. Heads he wins, tails he doesn't lose much.

(2) Oil & gas are FAR FAR FAR from perfect inflation hedges. I would argue they would need to be a component in an inflation hedging portfolio but you could be royally screwed if you over relied on them for that. And frankly, hedges don't work that way. I can't imagine these MLPs getting much upside from higher commodity prices if they've effectively hedged the downside. As those hedges roll off, they'll lock in new ones at whatever the current price is. That being said, BBEP looks like a no-brainer to me and I bought some.

(3) I believe the "enough work" might be just looking at historical returns of different sectors during inflationary times. I think consumer staples are a good play. I remember inflationary times of the 70's gave way to the nifty fifty... lots of bluechip consumer staples in there that were run up to high high prices. Just a thought. Still I think his inflation hedge is a tips bond paired against a short treasury.

bsivia said...

(1)Maybe I should have been clearer but I did not mean to say that MLPs are Klarman's THE hedge but A hedge.

(2)Oil and gas are not perfect hedges, and this is the reason he did not invest in anything but yield paying plays. The payback for BBEP is 3 years, so you get your money back in 3 years and if the stock is worth anything, then that is your capital gain (infact even under normal market conditions BBEP should be at least double or triple its value today). In my opinion MLPs are a cheap (not perfect) hedge. Heads I win, Tails I get my money back in 3 years.

(3) Long TIPs and Short treasuries is a good idea, but I personally am a little skeptical of government reported CPI numbers.

sobko said...

This NYT article from 07 makes it clear that he uses gold as an inflation hedge:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/13/business/yourmoney/13klar.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&sq=seth%20klarman&st=nyt&scp=1

Unknown said...

If it was MLP's, it would be all over his 13 F filings.

I think that the best inflation hedge has been agricultural commodities. This has been a favored hedge by Jim Rogers

http://fundmanagernews.com/jim-rogers-agriculture

My guess is that Klarman bought deep out of the money calls on agriculture which is a similar strategy employed by Nassim Talebs